It is February 2026, and Kenya is already feeling the first breath of what is coming. This morning, the Kenya Meteorological Department issued its forecast for the week of February 24 to March 2: “Isolated heavy rainfall events may occur in the Central Highlands, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, South-eastern Lowlands, Coast, Western, and North-western Kenya.” 1Residents of Nairobi have been told to stay updated and exercise caution. Farmers in Nandi, Kericho and Nyamira are watching their skies. Along the shores of Lake Victoria, the afternoon thunderstorms are already arriving. The anticipation is mixed – as it always is at this time of year in Kenya. On one hand, the rains bring life. The long rains season, running from March through May, is the country’s primary agricultural season. For millions of smallholder farmers across the highlands and rift valley, these months determine whether the year will bring enough food. But on the other hand, the rains also bring dread. Because in Kenya, rain does not simply fall and nourish. It falls, it overwhelms and it destroys. Even before the long rains have properly begun, the bigger worry is not whether the rain will come. It is what will happen when it does.