Abstract
Lake Nakuru is one of the rift valley lakes that has experienced flooding occasioned by climate change and catchment areas degradation. The increasing water levels have been a great threat to livelihoods and flora and fauna, to the extent of the lake experiencing flamingoes’ migration. There have been attempts to establish the causes of flooding, with some scientists attributing the phenomenon to tectonic movements and geothermal power plant activities. This research aimed at studying the impact of climate change on the rising water levels of the lake. The objective of this study included assessing the rainfall amounts and temperature variations around the lake over time and predicting the lake's flooding by modelling the surface area variations. Validated rainfall and temperature data, lake’s water level data with regards to surface area variations and Mau encroachment data were collected from the Kenya Meteorological Department, GIS applications and Landsat 8 and composite bands 5, 4 and 3 and the Kenya Water Towers Agency, respectively. Statistical analysis was done using Microsoft Excel 2013 and the relationship amongst various variables was determined. The statistical analysis involved a regression model equation, y=0.933x+26.606 with an r2 value of 0.79, where y-Lake Nakuru surface area (km2) and x- count of years since 1990. The findings showed that encroachment of Mau forest and high rainfall and temperature amounts in the 2010-2019 decade attributed to climate change are contributing factors to the lake’s flooding. It is concluded that climate change is a major contributing factor to the rising water levels of the lake and it greatly impacts hydrologic changes that the lake continues to experience. Therefore, catchment areas have to be protected to save the situation, not only for Lake Nakuru but also for other lakes in the region.
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